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Extreme results often move toward average
Regression to the mean occurs when an unusually high or low measurement is followed by one closer to typical.
The idea
Extreme outcomes often combine a stable cause with temporary luck or noise. When the temporary part fades, the next result looks more ordinary.
An example
After an exceptionally poor performance, improvement may happen even without a new intervention—because the original result included bad luck.
Put it into practice
Do not credit every rebound to the action taken in between. Compare against a control or a longer pattern.
Test yourself: After an extreme result, a more typical result may appear because…
Temporary luck or noise has faded
Exactly. Extreme outcomes often contain a temporary component that does not repeat.
Explanation and illustrative examples by One Card Wiser. Source linked for further reading.
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