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Good beliefs update with evidence

Bayesian thinking means adjusting confidence when new evidence arrives—not switching between absolute certainty and doubt.

The idea

Evidence matters in relation to what was already plausible. A surprising result should move your belief more when it would be unlikely under alternative explanations.

An example

A positive result for a rare condition can still be a false positive if the test is imperfect and the condition was very unlikely beforehand.

Put it into practice

Ask two questions: “How plausible was this before?” and “How likely is this evidence if I am wrong?”